To the average Briton, George Galloway is not a credible figure. Admittedly, he had some appeal during the 2016 EU referendum and was credited by Nigel Farage for Bradford’s Leave vote. He is undoubtedly an effective populist and a super orator. But beyond that, and his favourability among British Muslims, that’s it. The median Briton either doesn’t know him, or doesn’t like him.
Nonetheless, it is clear that in the right circumstances Galloway can attract voters and win in low-turnout elections – his victory in last week’s Rochdale by-election made him the first MP since Winston Churchill to have represented four different seats (the other constituencies being Glasgow Hillhead/Kelvin, Bethnal Green and Bow, and Bradford West). But he has never been re-elected in the same seat after winning a by-election. Once turnout reaches circa 60 per cent, as in most general elections (it was just 39.7 per cent in Rochdale), the former Labour-turned-Respect-turned-Workers Party rabble-rouser usually finds his performance wanting.
In Rochdale, Galloway was aided by the absence of an official Labour candidate (Azhar Ali having been dropped for promoting anti-Semitic conspiracy theories) and differential turnout. Those at the count believe Asian voters made up a disproportionate number of those who turned up (relative to their prevalence in the constituency). But will Galloway’s good fortune last?
Let’s take ourselves back to 2012, when Galloway won Bradford West in a similarly stunning by-election victory for the Respect Party. That year he attracted 56 per cent of the vote on a 50 per cent turnout; in the 2015 general election he lost with 21 per cent of the vote on a 64 per cent turnout.
In Bradford’s 2012 council elections a couple of months after Galloway’s by-election win, Respect won five councillors, unseating Labour candidates in previously ultra-safe locales. (Though Labour still won more votes across the constituency as a whole.)
But in the 2014 locals, Labour beat Respect convincingly. In 2015, Labour pummelled Respect at the council election and, more importantly, beat Galloway himself comfortably. Will history repeat itself in Rochdale? (Where Galloway intends to stand at the general election.)
The thing about the Rochdale by-election is that it is simultaneously representative and unrepresentative. It is not indicative of the national mood, which is primarily focused on the cost of living and is determined to punish the Conservatives accordingly. But it does reflect voter anger over Labour’s response to the war in Gaza. There are signs of Labour losing significant support among Muslim groups, a demographic that is larger than in 2005 (when Galloway won in Bethnal Green and Bow amid outrage over the invasion of Iraq).
In general, low and high turnout elections don’t yield dramatically different results. But in the case of Galloway, they do. However, this should not distract from how angry Muslim Britons are with Labour’s position on Gaza. A Survation poll found that support for Labour among active Muslim voters has fallen from 86 per cent under Jeremy Corbyn to 60 per cent under Keir Starmer.
This trend was building long before Galloway’s victory – and will outlast any defeat. The challenge facing Starmer’s party goes far beyond one man. Unless Labour resets its relationship with Muslim Britain, voter anger will endure – with unpredictable electoral consequences.
[See also: Why Labour is moving closer to Europe on defence]
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